Bracketology #4, RIVALRY WEEK (sorta)

Rivalry Week Lite

    I originally thought ESPN screwed the pooch with this year's "Rivalry Week" by putting it the 2nd week of February, but a further look into the schedule shows that maybe they picked the right week. Perhaps it's been jumbled by the Big Ten sliding their tournament up a week (See last week's post), so we don't get Indiana-Purdue or Ohio State- Michigan to feed into it. But this final week of the regular season, usually reserved for bitter rivalries to add another chapter, seems quite watered down. Of course there's the granddaddy of them all, Duke-UNC in Cameron, but the remaining 6 days and 21+ hours are definitely lacking. Nevertheless, I'm going to give you the schedule of the best match-ups of "Rivalry Week", as well as ranking what I feel are the top rivalries in College basketball (excluding Duke-UNC because we all know it's the best).

    Monday; if you don't mind the fact that both of these squads are terrible, there's sure to be some tension between Delaware State and Maryland-Eastern Shore. The two HBCU's and MEAC opponents, separated by about 70 miles, have combined for just 9 wins all season, and this will be their first and only meeting this season. In the all-time rivalry, Delaware State holds the advantage 56-46, since they first played back in 1958.

    Tuesday; best rivalry of this night goes to Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan. These two also don't offer a ton in terms of solid history (just 8 tournament appearances combined), but both are very competitive in the MAC this season and this one is actually expected to be a very competitive ballgame. A player to keep an eye on is EMU's James Thompson, who I believe could end up being the MAC player of the year, averaging 15.4 pts, 11.9 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game.These two schools are separated by 105 miles, and Western Michigan leads the all-time series 60-48.

    Wednesday; things begin to heat up with some recognizable faces. #20 Nevada @ UNLV is the leader in the clubhouse on this night, although it doesn't start until 11pm EST... Nevada has been one of the premier teams in the country this season, spending almost the entire year in the top 25, and are expected to likely be no lower than a 6-seed in the NCAA Tournament. They boast the biggest lineup in the Mountain West, headlined by Caleb Martin & Jordan Caroline, two candidates for conference player of the year. UNLV (19-9), is also in contention for a tournament birth, although it's likely they would need to win the Mountain West in order to achieve that goal. This would be a big step forward for the Rebels, to be able to complete a sweep of Nevada (W on 2/7 in Reno 86-78) on their home floor in front of what's sure to be a raucous crowd at the Thomas & Mack Center Wednesday night. UNLV leads the all time series 59-25.

     Thursday; the two biggest "rivalry games" on this night, are two more MEAC games, NC Central v. NC A&T and Bethune-Cookman v. Florida A&M, and I just won't subject you all to a report on more sub-par basketball. If you want to watch them, they'll be there, that's up to you.

     Friday; Penn-Yale and UT-Arlington- Texas State highlight this night... Penn is the current leader in the Ivy, and that's about all the analysis this needs as well.

     Saturday; Villanova- Georgetown (if you can still call this a rivalry), Georgia-Tennessee, Kentucky-Florida, Arkansas-Missouri, Utah-Colorado, UCLA-USC, and of course North Carolina-Duke all get it on Saturday. Literally too many to watch, but if I had to pick one other than the big one, it would be either Kentucky-Florida or UCLA-USC. Kentucky & Florida each have struggled in the second half of the season, and as bitter as that rivalry usually is, I wouldn't be surprised to see some fireworks. As far as UCLA-USC is concerned, it's likely that the loser won't make the NCAA Tournament, so needless to say, it's a big deal.

Top College Basketball Rivalries (my list)

1. Duke-North Carolina

2. Kentucky-Louisville

3. Purdue-Indiana

4. Xavier-Cincinnati

5. Penn-Princeton

now, proceed to roast me..

Rock Chalk Dominance
     It's truly incredible what Kansas has been able to accomplish. With their win at Texas Tech last night, the Jayhawks became the first program to win at least a share of 14 consecutive regular season conference championships. KU has won at least a split of the Big XII regular season title, ever year, since the 2004-2005 season, with at least 10 of them outright. The record they break, used to belong to UCLA, which won 13 consecutive Pacific-8 & Pacific-10 (now PAC-12) from 1967-1979. To give some perspective on how amazing this feat has been, the second longest streak among major conferences (excluding Gonzaga's run of 11 WCC titles from 2001-2011) is the one Villanova currently has of 4. The next longest streak in that same time frame is a tie between UCLA and North Carolina, each with 3. With as competitive as the game has become, and specifically the Big XII recently, it cannot be understated how impressive this streak is for Kansas.

FBI Bombshell
     Originally when I began writing this week's article, I was going to taunt the FBI for teasing this investigation that was supposed to implicate "nearly half of the top 16" teams in the country for illegal activities. Now that Yahoo! has leaked most of the information, it's worth discussing. There are over 30 players named in the documents released. Additionally, Arizona head coach Sean Miller is reportedly caught on federal wiretap, discussing the idea of paying 5-star then recruit, Deandre Ayton, $100,000 to secure his commitment to the Wildcats. ESPN is reporting as of last night that Miller has been relieved of his duties as head coach. Some of the bigger names on the list have been rule eligible and cleared to play, among them Ayton, Michigan State's Miles Bridges, Duke's Wendell Carter and Alabama's Collin Sexton.
     But I guess my bigger overall question is this. The actual FBI report has yet to come out, and at this point I don't really know what we're waiting on. But if the remaining info lacks things such as point shaving and gambling issues, what exactly are we hoping to accomplish here? To think that these things (loans, money and meals from shoe companies and agents) haven't always happened and will continue to happen under the current structure, is both naive and shortsighted. The truth is, there is no one-size-fits-all solution to corruption in amateur athletics. And no, I do not advocate paying student-athletes in a salary type format. That poses so many other issues that are very real, and are no better than what is currently going on. But I do acknowledge this thing needs change. Why is it that I can walk into almost every major university bookstore, and buy a piece of memorabilia or clothing with a name and/or likeness of a student-athlete on it, but not a dime of that purchase goes to the student-athlete? The school wouldn't have any base to sell on if it were not for the hard work of that particular kid, or group of kids. Since "Phi Slamma Jamma", through the "Fab Five", and even now onto the sale of jerseys and pictures, schools have been making money, not just on tickets and TV revenue, but merchandise for decades. If we don't want kids making deals with the underbelly of amateur athletics (i.e Andy Miller, the agent named in the report), some of those dollars need to trickle down to the athletes.
     I will add this to the end. Since I believe reporting that kids might have let an agent pay for dinner for them and their parents, approximately $70, and could jeopardize their eligibility is borderline stupid, let's address something that I feel has gone grossly under reported and analyzed. Why is no one talking about the fact that Mark Emmert likely knew all about the Michigan State sexual assault scandal, and did absolutely nothing about it? According to The Athletic, in a report that came out almost a month ago, NCAVA founder Kathy Redmond, alerted "NCAA President Mark Emmert specifically in November of 2010.. to 37 reports involving Michigan State athletes sexually assaulting women." None of this came to light until the conviction of former US Gymnastics coach and Michigan State employee Larry Nassar, of sexual assault of multiple former athletes. Emmert has since responded with a eye-roll of a statement, stating that the letter was "not addressed to him directly" and the idea that he's done absolutely nothing in response "couldn't be farther from the truth." If it is the truth, Emmert needs to lose his job, if not go to jail. This is story that needs to be talked about round the clock, and I'd hate to think that the media that covers the sport is that afraid of the NCAA Board of Governors reaction. If you want to clean up the sport, start at the top.

BRACKETOLOGY
2/25
#1 seeds       
Virginia
Villanova
Xavier
Duke

Last Four In
Boise State
Utah
NC State
Washington

First Four Out
Temple
Louisville
Marquette
Kansas State

Next Four Out
Texas
Penn State
Maryland
Western Kentucky

SOUTH REGION (Atlanta, GA)
1. Virginia
2. Purdue
3. Rhode Island
4. Tennessee
5. TCU
6. Houston
7. Arizona State
8. Butler
9. Texas A&M
10. Florida State
11. Virginia Tech
12. Loyola (IL)
13. Rider
14. East Tennessee State
15. Wagner
16. UC-Irvine / North Carolina A&T

EAST REGION (Boston, MA)
1. Villanova
2. Michigan State
3. Cincinnati
4. Clemson
5. West Virginia
6. Seton Hall
7. Miami (FL)
8. Alabama
9. Buffalo
10. USC
11. Washington / NC State
12. Middle Tennessee
13. Bucknell
14. South Dakota State
15. Montana
16. Nicholls State / Grambling State

MID-WEST REGION (Omaha, NE)
1. Xavier
2. Kansas
3. North Carolina
4. Gonzaga
5. Arizona
6. Ohio State
7. Nevada
8. Arkansas
9. Syracuse
10. Missouri
11. St. Bonaventure
12. Vermont
13. New Mexico State
14. Louisiana
15. Wright State
16. Pennsylvania

WEST REGION (Los Angeles, CA)
1. Duke
2. Auburn
3. Texas Tech
4. Wichita State
5. Saint Mary's (CA)
6. Kentucky
7. Michigan
8. Creighton
9. Oklahoma
10. Providence
11. UCLA
12. Boise State / Utah
13. Charleston
14. Murray State
15. UNC-Asheville
16. Florida Gulf Coast

Bracketology #3, who does the Big Ten think they are?

Hello folks, apologies we missed a week. Things around here got a little crazy, what with our football fellas winning the Super Bowl and all; and yes, I re-calibrated the bracket last week, only to have anarchy break loose in the top 10, rendering all I did useless before I could post it. But we're back, and will be able to stay on schedule going forward all the way to Selection Sunday. A loose schedule of the updates that are to come:

2/15 Today

2/25 End of Atlantic Sun, B1G, Big South, Horizon, MAAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot League, Southern, Summit League, WCC regular season schedules. 

3/4 12 Automatic bids decided, all other conferences regular season schedules end.

3/8 Quarterfinals of ACC, Pac-12, preliminary rounds of other major tournaments

3/10 12 more automatic bids decided, remaining 6 conferences in semi-finals

3/11 Selection Sunday (morning of)

First, a few thoughts and stories for you...

Big Ten Lunacy

     B1G, what are you doing? The Big Ten is in the midst of one of the worst years the conference has ever seen. It is the worst conference in terms of tournament worthy RPI (6 teams in top 68), of any power 5 league (and tied with the American). The saving grace for the conference, is the fact that they have 3 squads in the top 16, all of which will likely be 3-seeds or better. So even in a really down year, they've given themselves 3 real shots at the Final Four, right? Hard to say, considering the scheduling process for their conference tournament. They've cut themselves off at the knees with the hopes of, what exactly I'm not sure. They've scheduled their conference tournament a week earlier than usual, in order to have access to Madison Square Garden, which hosts the Big East tournament annually the weekend of Selection Sunday. The Big East wasn't ever going to move, so if the B1G wanted the Garden, they had to. But why? Why force your way into MSG, inconvenience every school in your conference by jamming 18 games into a window that is now a week shorter, only to have the teams worthy of the NCAA Tournament have to wait no less than 10 days to begin the round of 64. There hasn't ever been a power conference to schedule their tournament a week early, I don't think ever. I couldn't find one at least. So there's no data to show how this affects power conference teams at all. Just know, teams that typically face a 10-day layoff rarely find success in the postseason. There's plenty of data from smaller mid-major conferences who typically hold their tournaments a week early, and they always seem to struggle to win even a round. But those conferences struggle anyway. It just seems that the Big Ten, in an attempt to steal some of the NY spotlight from the Big East, is in danger of harming the conference's post season chances as a whole.

Doug Gottlieb

     I knew the story as it had been told about Doug Gottlieb's dismissal from Notre Dame many years ago, but only from an outsider's perspective. Through the eyes of other journalists and reporters, and often not in a mainstream media format, as the whole situation had been cast into the shadows for many reasons, current relevance among them. I have long respected Gottlieb's opinions on the sport, while being able to separate my thoughts on his character. So getting to read his point of view on his situation, hearing his side of the story, was refreshing. I applaud Doug for his ability to put into words what was going through his head. It's something that, as he says in his article, has completely altered the course of his life. He understands he will forever hear about it from fans and trolls alike; maybe it's just, maybe it's not, but it is reality. I've never agreed with all of his opinions or takes on college basketball, and I likely never will. But he is someone with tremendous insight into the game, and for what it is worth, I have gained a new level of respect for him because of his openness about a dark, very public time of his past. Kudos to you Doug.

https://www.theathletic.com/236536/2018/02/12/gottlieb-the-mistakes-i-made-and-the-price-i-paid/

We're aboard the Xavier train
     Ok X, you've sold me. In past years I've dismissed Xavier, as just another team with a lot of heart and less talent, that could surprise some teams in the tournament but were never good enough to reach the first weekend in April. Not this year. I'm sorry to the Musketeers in advance, as I am often a gigantic mush when it comes to bold statements like this, but this Xavier team appears to be for real. There are a number of signs that point to Xavier being a team poised for a serious run into March/April. I'm going to give you five. First,... Trevon Bluiett (and their other seniors)
    Bluiett has emerged as one of the best players in the country this season. He's been one of the best in the Big East for a couple of years now, but this kid can do it all. He's averaging 19.6 points, 5.7 boards and just short of 3 assists per game. But his big improvement this season has come from the 3-point line. He's up to almost 45% from 3 this season, and he's even up from 75% to 83% behind the line. While Bluiett is the biggest difference maker, their roster is loaded with other seniors who are playing huge roles. J.P Macura is one of the best all around players in the league, especially on the defensive end. Kerem Kanter and Sean O'Mara are probably the best front-court duo in the league when healthy. Their starting lineup has just two of these guys, giving their bench an immense amount of experience.

     Second, their benefiting from the rigor of a long conference schedule full of real competition.
Xavier joined the Big East after the great schism in 2013. Prior to that, they'd spent most of their time in the past quarter century in the Atlantic 10. The A-10 is a good conference, but rarely can you say it prepares teams for a long, Championship level run. The Big East does, and this is the first class with serious talent that can say they've played four years in one of the best conferences in the country.
    Third, they have ability to adapt.
Unlike past Xavier teams, this one is diverse with their athleticism. They have the ability to run smaller lineups to compete with Nova, Cincinnati, & Virginia, but also can run lineups with legitimate size, and scoring size, to compete with bigger teams like Purdue, Texas Tech, & Duke. Whatever they need to do to compete, this team has the ability to do it.  

    Fourth, they've got real NCAA Tournament experience.
This senior class is 6-3 in the last three NCAA Tournaments, including two Sweet 16 trips, and a loss in the Elite 8 last year to eventual National runner-ups, Gonzaga. Also last year, they were able to upset a 6-seed, a 3-seed and the 2-seed Arizona, coached by former head coach Sean Miler (heavy favorite) en route to reaching Gonzaga. There isn't going to be an opponent, or a stage that intimidates them.

    Fifth, and finally, Chris Mack has quietly been building up to this.
When Chris Mack took over in 2009, he began the transformation of this program that you are currently seeing. Joining the Big East helped, but Xavier under Mack, has taken the shape of a real program. A possible destination for top tier talent, showing they can compete consistently in the Big East and nationally. They had opportunities under Miller, and Thad Matta, but none where they were as prepared as they are now. All of the ingredients are there for the Musketeers to make their first Final Four ever. They have the most NCAA Tournament wins (27) of any school that has never made a Final Four. Chris Mack's direction has lead them to this. This is the team he was waiting for. It's time to follow through.

BRACKETOLOGY
2/15
#1 seeds       
Virginia
Xavier
Auburn
Cincinnati

Last Four In
Washington
Texas
USC
Baylor

First Four Out
Temple
Virginia Tech
NC State
UCF

Next Four Out
Kansas State
Western Kentucky
Nebraska
UCLA

EAST REGION (Boston, MA)
1. Virginia
2. Texas Tech
3. Michigan State
4. Tennessee
5. Wichita State
6. Creighton
7. Seton Hall
8. Alabama
9. Arizona State
10. Texas / Washington (play-in)
11. Boise State
12. New Mexico State
13. Loyola (IL)
14. Bucknell
15. UNC-Asheville
16. Nicholls State / Grambling State (play-in)

MID-WEST REGION (Omaha, NE)
1. Xavier
2. Duke
3. Kansas
4. Ohio State
5. Missouri
6. Gonzaga
7. Nevada
8. Miami (FL)
9. Providence
10. Arkansas
11. Butler
12. Vermont
13. Charleston
14. East Tennessee State
15. Montana
16. Wagner / Savannah State

SOUTH REGION (Atlanta, GA)
1. Auburn
2. Clemson
3. Rhode Island
4. Saint Mary's (CA)
5. Arizona
6. West Virginia
7. TCU
8. Louisville
9. Houston
10. Buffalo
11. Florida
12. Florida State
13. Louisiana-Lafayette
14. South Dakota State
15. UC- Santa Barbara
16. Florida Gulf Coast

WEST REGION (Los Angeles, CA)
1. Cincinnati
2. Villanova
3. Purdue
4. North Carolina
5. Texas A&M
6. Kentucky
7. Oklahoma
8. Middle Tennessee
9. Michigan
10. Syracuse
11. USC / Baylor (play-in)
12. St.Bonaventure
13. Rider
14. Murray State
15. Northern Kentucky
16. Pennsylvania