Bracketology - Road To March

Out of all of my sports related projects and subjects, what may be my favorite is the NCAA Tournament. I started my bracket projection project 2 seasons ago, and last year I got 66/68 teams correct. Additional sounding of my own horn will tell you that I also got 50/68 on, or within one line of their actual seed line. I placed 22/68 right (seed), 12/68 exactly right (seed and region), all four #1 seeds in order, and 13/16 top 4 seeds correct. Yes, I am getting pretty good at this. But this year is another challenge, and all of last year's success means nothing if I botch this year. And as those of you who follow know, this year in college basketball has already been bananas. So with all of this being said, this is my first full bracket projection of the year. I will try to update this at least 4-5 more times prior to selection Sunday. Each time I will also add a few smaller pieces and points I'd like to make about the season. Hope you all enjoy!

Naismith Watch

     The wide-ranging opinion is that Trae Young is running away with the Naismith Award, and that attention is well deserved. But I can't help but take a stand for Jalen Brunson. The junior guard is enjoying careerhighs statistically across the board, and is absolutely the leader on the floor for the nation's best team, and has taken his play to a new level this season knowing it's his team. There are others deserving of mention as well, Marvin Bagley, Angel Delgado, and hell I'll even throw some love to Landry Shamet, but the complete player that Brunson has become is what stands out for me.

Final Four Turnover

     It's rare to have multiple teams return to the Final Four in back-to-back years. What's even more rare is to have 3 teams that made the Final Four the previous year, not even make it to the NCAA Tournament the next. Now some people are going to call this opinion crazy, but my opinion is that last phenomenon is likely. South Carolina and Oregon were expected to slip, and they both lie outside the bubble in my projection. But Gonzaga is the mystery. The AP has them 13th this week. I find that outrageous. The Zags are 16-3 this season, with the 57th best RPI and a strength of schedule that's 194th.. Last year on their way to the Final Four, the Zags finished 6th in RPI and 32nd in strength of schedule. Their 3 losses are to #1 Villanova, Creighton and San Diego State. Those aren't total resume killers, but assuming they can't roll through the WCC like last year, they'll acquire some losses that could be problematic, given the other numbers involved. Another point to be noted here, the AP poll rarely has anything to do with Tournament seeding or involvement. Meaning just because the AP loves you, doesn't necessarily translate to the committee loving you. Gonzaga needs to put a strong run together, because for them, nothing is certain.

BRACKETOLOGY

#1 seeds

1. Villanova

2. Virginia

3. Duke

4. Oklahoma

Last Four In

UCLA

St. Bonaventure

Florida State

Boise State

First Four Out

Notre Dame

Maryland

South Carolina

Washington

Next Four Out

Utah

Georgia

Houston

Central Florida

EAST REGION (Boston, MA)

1. Villanova

2. Purdue

3. Auburn

4. Clemson

5. Tennessee

6. Butler

7. Rhode Island

8. Nevada

9. Michigan

10. Syracuse

11. Western Kentucky

12. Colorado

13. Wright State

14. Cal State - Fullerton

15. Robert Morris

16. North Carolina A&T / Jackson State (play-in)

MIDWEST REGION (Omaha, NE)

1. Virginia

2. Kansas

3. Seton Hall

4. Michigan State

5. Arizona State

6. Ohio State

7. Texas A&M

8. Marquette

9. Missouri

10. Cincinnati

11. Florida State / Boise State (play-in)

12. St.Bonaventure

13. East Tennessee State

14. Murray State

15. Pennsylvania

16. Boston University / Nicholls State (play-in)

SOUTH REGION (Atlanta, GA)

1. Duke

2. Xavier

3. Kentucky

4. Arizona

5. Texas Tech

6. Louisville

7. Buffalo

8. Alabama

9. Creighton

10. Middle Tennessee

11. UCLA / Texas (play-in)

12. New Mexico State

13. William & Mary

14. Louisiana- Lafayette

15. Drake

16. Montana

WEST REGION (Los Angeles, CA)

1. Oklahoma 

2. Wichita State

3. North Carolina

4. West Virginia

5. Arkansas

6. TCU

7. Florida

8. Saint Mary's (CA)

9. Miami (FL)

10. USC

11. Providence

12. South Dakota State

13. Vermont

14. Iona 

15. Radford

16. Florida Gulf Coast