YOUR EAGLES SEASON CRASHED AND BURNED AND NOW YOU DONT KNOW WHAT TO DO OR HOW TO FEEL. HERE ARE SOME THINGS TO CONSIDER BEFORE ACTING A FOOL.
TAMPA, FL –
At the
end of the evening, it was a feeling of relief as much as it was a feeling of
annoyance or grief. The 2023 Eagles, mere shadows of their NFC Champion
predecessors, were a chore from the opening kickoff in Foxborough if we’re
honest. There was something just a little off from the start, culminating in
the 2nd worst statistical (and the worst spiritual) loss in
franchise postseason history, & unlike the last two off-season’s, there are
more questions than answers as to how to fix things.
Even after a 10-1 start, it felt
like we were trying to convince ourselves that they were great along with
fending off the haters and whiners (typical). But then, the biggest haters and
whiners of the bunch over the last calendar year came to town, the San
Francisco 49ers, and instead of a hard-fought playoff preview we expected to
see, the 49ers whooped the Eagles in a way they haven’t been whooped in quite
some time. Just like that, as if they were raptured off the planet, the Eagles
team we thought we had vanished, never to be seen again. It’s as if the heart, soul,
and dignity of the 2023 Eagles, followed Big Dom up the tunnel on that rainy
December Sunday evening, never to return. Here, I will give San Francisco their
due, and only this once, they took on the embodiment we hoped the Eagles would
have. They were the bullies, & showed resilience all year, not just the
first 11 weeks, and earned everything they have to this point. They have their
own business to finish now, but there is no question which of those two teams
answered the expectations in 2023. For our Eagles, business starts now. There
are a ton of questions, feelings, emotions, fand opinions, which I will strive
here to quell the worst of each of those. 94.1 WIP is going to do what 94.1 WIP
does, but if you’d like some analysis from someone who isn’t trying to always
goad the worst out of you and your loved ones, keep reading.
WHO ORDERED THE CODE RED?
How I
see it, the single most important answer the Eagles need to evaluate, is who
was directly behind the decision to remove Sean Desai from his role and insert
Matt Patricia? For my money, it’s the single biggest overreaction in the 90-year
history of this franchise. Was Desai perfect? No, in fact the argument was
there to be made that his scheme had not only shown signs of weakness but was
doomed from the start if you look at the trend of the “Fangio style” defenses
dying on the vine around the league throughout the course of this season and
the end of the 2022 season. But the truth about what happened here hasn’t been
scrutinized enough. In the 13 games under Desai, the Eagles were 10-3, and had
allowed 24.7 points per game (22.4 before SF & DAL games), 20th
in the league at the time. Not great, but given the schedule they faced, the
injuries they incurred and the overall record (as well as the little amount of
time to implement large adjustments!), relieving Desai of his duties should’ve
never entered the equation. Additionally, the Desai scheme produced 37 sacks
(2.85 per game) in 13 games, 8 of those came against teams who finished in the
top 12 in total offense. Well short of their record setting 72 sacks last
season, but at the time the Eagles were 7th in sacks in the NFL.
In 5 games with Patricia at the
helm, the Eagles defense caved in, allowing 29.8 points per game (worst in the
NFL) and putting an incredible strain on the rest of the team. Additionally,
after the change, the Eagles recorded just 10 sacks in 5 games, 4 of those
coming while way behind in the playoff game against Tampa. Against three terrible
offenses in the final four weeks of the regular season, the Patricia “scheme”
forced just 6 total sacks, 2nd fewest in the league over that same
stretch.
Maybe
the most damning piece of the equation, is just how lost and lifeless the
defensive unit became. It wasn’t just that they were getting scored on, it was
how. Big plays, previously few and far between under Desai, became common
place. They forced just three turnovers in 5 games, also second fewest in the
league, and simply could not get off the field, ever. No really, this might be
the worst of them all. Patricia’s group forced 10 total punts in 5 games, only
6 of them while the game score was within 14 points, with the albatross of the
bunch being a punt-less game against the hapless, long-since eliminated Arizona
Cardinals, allowing 449 yards and 32 first downs along the way in a game where
the Eagles had everything to play for and Arizona had nothing to play for.
Desai
might not have been the long-term answer, but replacing him during the season,
while the team was still atop the standings, was simply a panicked move from a
team with no reason to panic. It was a rescue flare for a group that didn’t
need to be, nor was there even time to be rescued. You can trace back the
entire season’s meltdown to that one decision. The Eagles had not allowed a
game-losing touchdown drive in the final 2 minutes of a game since 2019, when
current Eagle Julio Jones broke off a 54-yard TD after the 2-minute warning in
a game in Atlanta. In Patricia’s first game as defensive play caller, they
allowed career backup Drew Lock to go 92 yard in 92 seconds, with no timeouts
to give up a game that the Eagles not only had to have but had securely in the
bag by almost every previous similar situation. Patricia was wildly unqualified
to be the replacement, he has failed miserably at every opportunity he’s ever
had in pro football without working directly under the cloak of Bill Belichick,
who called defensive plays for almost the entirety of Patricia’s time there.
But to be fair, no one would’ve succeeded in the role he was asked to play. Fix
and implement your own scheme on the fly with 4 weeks left before the playoffs,
when the “scheme” you run is vastly different from the one the players
currently work within? A disaster from the start.
The mere idea of it is pathetic,
and while the offense didn’t hold up it’s end of the bargain mostly (we’ll get
to them), the straw that broke the camel’s back was this decision. Who made the
decision should be held accountable. If it was Sirianni? He should be
dismissed. If that was his answer to a two week stretch of adversity, he simply
cannot be trusted to fix what have now become much bigger issues. Your leader
cannot be someone who panics. What’s more is, the players saw it. The veterans
saw that move and could only think that management was panicking, which is an
environment that virtually no one can succeed in. If it came from above Nick?
He should keep his job, and there needs to be serious re-evaluation of this
team’s processes, specifically how much the executives get involved in
day-to-day operations. This isn’t the first time that topic has come up. It was
a huge theme during the last coaching change, indirectly blamed for the burnout
of champion HC Doug Pederson, who had leaked before the disastrous 2020 season
that he was considering taking a year off. Most thought it was crazy (me
included), but after that season played out, it was clear that the
micromanaging of Roseman and co. had taken its toll on the coach, relating to
his decision to dig his heels in when asked to make further changes to his
coaching staff, causing Jeffrey Lurie to fire him. If you don’t learn from your
history, you’re doomed to repeat it, and it looks like the Eagles are doing
just that to some degree. Only this time, it wasn’t a selfish QB undermining
the foundation of the franchise, but their own decision making causing a
promising season to crater and eventually disappear. Roseman won’t be dismissed
over it, but significant changes within his circle and processes are needed to
prevent this type of thing from ever happening again.
THE BLITZ, IT TOLLS FOR THEE
This is
where I get to address the “rUn ThE BaLL” folks for a minute. I’m flat out sick
of it. Do you people even know what you’re saying anymore? Or are you just
regurgitating what you hear from your radio or your old racist uncle and his
idiot friends, who still celebrate Buddy Ryan like an unearned folk hero? In
large part, I blame the most watched piece of coverage surrounding the team for
continuing to perpetuate this nonsense. If you don’t know what I’m talking
about, let me explain. “Eagles Post Game Live”, on NBC Sports Philadelphia, is
by far the worst piece of content surrounding a football team that I’ve ever
seen. It used to bring legit analysis to the table, in the days when it carried
people like Ray Didinger, Vaughn Hebron, Brian Westbrook, etc. Now? It’s a
hardo narrative gargle festival, made all the worse by the fact that TWO FORMER
PLAYERS sit on its panel. One of them, is former QB Ron Jaworski, who while the
game has certainly passed him by, enters each week with what I see as good
intentions and a genuine effort at analyzing the game as best he can. The
other, is Barrett Brooks, who’s tenure at this network and intrusion on my
consciousness has endured far longer than it should have. Barrett, played in
the NFL in this century, in a much closer version of the modern game we know
today, and thus should have a better measured and intelligent insight on what
goes on in a huddle. But you’d never be able to tell that if you came in flying
blind. To hear him talk about football, you’d think he played in the 60’s, when
guys had second jobs as plumbers in the offseason and concussions were
something you couldn’t have enough of because it meant “you were tough!”
Barrett and Jaws railed for the entire first segment the other night, about how
had the Eagles simply run the ball more, all their problems would’ve been
solved. Not only in the game that night, but all season. Even a slight glance
at the film, something I assume Brooks hasn’t taken in years, would bear out a
different story.
Football, in large part, is a game
of math. Matchups, especially in the run game, are often based on numbers as
much as individual talent disparities. A simple example would be, if you can
see that a defense is in man coverage, and they have a safety playing near the
line of scrimmage, you know that you have 1 on 1 matchups on the outside, which
now depending on the talent gap, could directly dictate where you go with the
ball. The example the Eagles saw on Monday night, and for a very large portion
of the season, had to do with “men in the box”. In simple terms, “the box” in
football refers to the area between the hash lines and from the line of
scrimmage out to about 3-5 yards, depending on who your talking to. Basically,
how many dudes do they have close to our dudes on the line. A “stacked” box
refers to having as many as 6, 7, sometimes even 8 guys there. A “light box”
refers to typically just the down defensive lineman (3 or 4 guys). Without
changing personnel packages, an offense has 5 blockers on every down. When a
team “stacks” the box, typically that leaves man to man coverage for the
receivers. It also means that more than likely, they have 1 more guy in that
area than you can block IF they all rush at the snap. Good defenses get tricky
by dropping guys that look like they may be blitzing at the snap, causing
confusion for the QB and receivers.
But simply put, when they show a
look where more guys can come at you than you have dudes to block, it’s
football suicide to just “RuN tHe BaLL!!” against that look. The Eagles faced
that look on over 75% of their offensive snaps on Monday. They ran for over 200
yards at over 5 yards per carry the first time these two teams played back in
September. There was simply NO WAY, Todd Bowles was going to willingly allow
the Eagles to beat them that way again. Wasn’t going to happen. Anyone paying
any attention knew that. Or at least should’ve, including the Eagles
themselves. Which brings me to the real point.
The way to beat the blitz (stacked
boxes), is the quick passing game. You throw slants, crossing routes, mesh
concepts and seam routes until you either force them to change what they’re
doing on defense, or you’re up 40. If a defense is stubborn enough, your QB
should throw for 500 yards and pound them into submission, with the routes
listed above. The problem for the Eagles, was that those routes didn’t exist.
At least not in a volume commensurate to a high success rate. Go rewatch it for
yourself. On a large majority of snaps where Tampa is showing pressure, the 3
or 4 Eagle pass catchers are working into routes 15+ yards down field. That
doesn’t work, that’s setting up your QB to fail. Listen to Aikman, listen to
the Manning brothers on their broadcast. Peyton Manning went as far as to say
the Eagles coaches were “just plain stubborn” for continually asking Hurts to
make impossible decisions. This wasn’t just against Tampa, they did it against
SF, Dallas the 2nd time, even the Giants had success doing this
against the Eagles in both of their meetings. It also doesn’t help that the
Eagles use pre-snap motion less than any other team in football. Given the
playmakers that offense has, that just seems plain stupid. How many jet sweeps
for Devonta Smith did you see this year? How many cross motions into a Texas
route did you see for A.J Brown? They ran a jet direct snap to Swift in the KC
game that went for almost 40 yards, and then we didn’t see it again… People used
to kill Doug Pederson for using Nelson Agholor in orbit motion 5 times per
game, but honestly, I’d kill to see this group do that even once per game. They
didn’t use a ton of motion last year either, but it was enough where the
defense at least had to account for it. Stubborn doesn’t do that justice, that
borders on malpractice. Simply screaming to run the ball into the void because
you don’t understand any of the above, helps no one. But the Eagles offensive
design de-evolved to a point where they flat out COULDN’T run the ball. They
had no answers for the blitz, so why would teams let them out of that scenario?
You can’t run 5 on 7, and you have no passing answers to relieve that pressure.
By the end, it was a no-win scenario for a team with an MVP runner up QB, a
1,000 yard rusher and two 1,000 yard receivers, one of whom went over 1,400
yards for a 2nd consecutive year (the first time ANY Eagle has done
that).
The playmakers are there, but the
design was so poor you couldn’t even tell. That’s on the coaches. Whether it’s
on Sirianni or Brian Johnson is to be determined, but either way both hold
accountability. Yes, Johnson calls the plays, but at the end of the day it’s
Sirianni’s offense. He brags constantly about it belonging to him. If neither
of them has the correct answers, that’s a big problem. I pause to say they
should be dismissed because there are other factors at play. We don’t know how
injured Jalen Hurts truly was, or if some of the stubbornness falls to him,
failing to check to different plays at the line in time. Also, good coaches,
especially offensive minds like that, are harder to find than you think. Was
this thing perfect? No, but they still were a top 10 offense. And keep in mind,
NO ONE liked Shane Steichen after year 1. People weren’t calling for his job,
but no one locally raved about him the way they did after year 2. Hell, there
were many folks, even some inside the organization, that weren’t sure about
Hurts still after seeing him in Steichen’s year 1 offense. By the end of year
2, all doubts were removed. Yes, Jalen improved his skillset, but the design of
the offense also improved. Brian Johnson’s resume shows me he’s a good coach, I
think it would be wise to see if he can play this out the same way Steichen
did.
WHO COACHES THE COACH-ERS?
The
third and final piece of the puzzle to me is player development and coaching.
It should’ve been discussed more, but the lack of production from the Eagles
rookie and sophomore class this year was alarming. Like big loud nuclear bomb
siren alarming. Too many valuable assets were used on players who either gave
very little, faded hard down the stretch, or couldn’t even get on the field
until their position was decimated with injury to call these last two classes
anything but disappointing so far. Look around the league, there are rookies,
some of whom late round picks, popping all over the place in the playoffs. Who
was the Eagles best rookie this year, Jalen Carter right? He flashed early in
the year, but in the back half of the season he too, vanished. Carter had 3.5
sacks in the first 5 games, making plays and disrupting teams plans virtually
every time he was on the field. But in the last 13 games, he recorded just 2.5
sacks. He had just 9 tackles in the final 6 games of the year. A total
non-factor, despite his snap count staying basically the same.
Some of that is a rookie hitting a
wall in his first pro season. But some of that is also development. The ability
for coaches and trainers to help a guy adapt to the season as it evolves. To
continue to develop skills as the league sees and adjusts against him. Carter
still had a fine rookie year overall, but what about next year? Unless he takes
another step forward, the #9 pick in the 2023 draft will quickly become just
another dude on a unit that is increasingly becoming just “a bunch of dudes”.
Additionally, name one other Eagles rookie who exceeded expectations in year 1?
Or even reached expectations in year 1? That’s the problem, there isn’t one.
Nolan Smith barely played until the final couple weeks. Sydney Brown was
injured, they played bad, then injured, then was forced into an impossible
role, then suffered a brutal ACL tear that has his 2024 season in jeopardy. Steen
was a depth pick, as were McKee and Ojomo. Kelee Ringo got a late start over a
contract dispute (??) and then by the time they felt he was up to speed; he too
was placed into the impossible defensive situation discussed earlier. Go back
to 2022’s picks. Jordan Davis hasn’t produced nearly the way the Eagles had
hoped (2.5 sacks, 5 total qb hits in 2 seasons, 0 of each this year after week
7). His raw skills are visible, yet he plays small. The Eagles don’t need him
to get 10 sacks a year, but they need him and Carter to disrupt in the middle
more than they are. They were both drafted as game wreckers, the force that
makes teams re-think going for 4th and short. The kind that forces
teams off schedule and into 2nd & 3rd and longs
because you simply can’t send the ball their way.
It’s not just these guys, truly,
tell me about a guy on the roster this year who got better? Who by the end of
the year, had a taken a huge step forward in his development into a quality NFL
player? I can wait. Other than finally finding a punter and watching Britain
Covey turn into a viable return option, I can’t think of one. Teams that win
Super Bowls find contributors from all corners of the roster. Guys who were on
the practice squad end up making plays along the way. The 2023 Eagles had none
of that. That responsibility falls to the coaching staff, specifically the
position group coaches. After losing both coordinators at the end of the 2022
season, the Eagles also needed to replace 3 key position coaches. Linebackers
coach Nick Rallis followed Jonathan Gannon to Arizona to be his defensive
coordinator. QB coach Brian Johnson was promoted to offensive coordinator
following Steichen’s departure for Indianapolis. And defensive backs coach
Dennard Wilson quit, after being passed up for the defensive coordinator spot,
landing in Baltimore as their defensive backs coach (go look at their
performance this year…). Replacing those 3 guys, were D.J Eliot, Alex Tanney
and DK McDonald. All 3 had been in the organization the year prior, but as
either assistants to the guys they replaced or at least in roles with much less
responsibility. All 3 of those positions regressed and regressed hard. Two of
them were so bad, Roseman had to go acquire outside pieces to fill holes (Byard
and Leonard), which also failed because their performance was poor. In case
anyone wasn’t sure, position coaches matter. They’re the guys in the room every
single day with the players. They’re the ones tasked with turning weaknesses
into strengths, and strengths into game-changing skills. With the lack of that
occurring across the board for the Eagles this year, all of these roles, and
some others as well, need to be upgraded. It’s not personal, im sure these guys
are good dudes, but the job didn’t get done. Not even close. With at bare minimum
a new defensive coordinator coming in, two of these will likely be replaced
naturally (my vote would be for Wilson to get his shot now fwiw). But to think
this didn’t factor in hugely to the Eagles demise is also foolish.
CLOSURE
I’ve gone on long enough. You
should get the point by now. If you still don’t, I’ll sum it up nicely for you.
The reasons for the 2023 Eagles promising campaign vanishing like a fart in the
wind, are nuanced and detailed and complicated, and cannot be solved by any one
specific thing you mouth breathers call into WIP and yell. No matter how many
times, or how funny it is that Chuck from Mt. Airy tells Jack Frtiz to shut the
fuck up, that doesn’t help the situation at all.
The biggest reason if you insist on
summing it up to one solid one, is, ready? That FOOTBALL IS HARD. THE NFL IS
HARD. There are 32 teams under the same exact constraints vying to win one
final game at the end of the year, and the talent difference from the 5th guy
to the 60th guys on any roster, across all rosters, are like less
than 1%. It’s a crazy place, much different and more competitive from the one
your granddaddy watched where guys smoked cigs and drank beers at halftime.
Every single guy in that league is a killer, the best player his town has ever
seen. And the job of predicting who’s going to be a star or not is a nearly
impossible one. The fact that Howie Roseman has done as good a job as he has
over the last decade plus is miraculous. This has been one of the most
successful eras of Eagles football ever, and even if that isn’t satisfying to
you as it should be, a measured pause and realization that we have a 25-year-old
all pro QB and a roster full of talent should give you enough mental fortitude
to not want to burn it all down.
I don’t know what they’re going to
do. I wouldn’t be stunned if they let Sirianni go (see first section), but I’d
be less surprised if he’s back with some new coaches and some different talent
on defense and hopefully, some new ideas in the bag as well. They have a lot of
work to do to get back to the league’s mountain top, but as frustrating as 2023
was, not all hope is lost. As Andy Dufrane once said, “Salvation lies within”,
and if there’s salvation for the Eagles at all, that’s true. The fixes should
be in house, it’s up to them to execute.
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